Nigeria earned a total of $143.51bn from crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum exports between 2023 and 2025, reaffirming the critical role of the hydrocarbon sector in the country’s foreign exchange earnings despite persistent output constraints.
The figure translates to about N174.35tn over the three-year period, based on prevailing exchange rates.
A breakdown of the data shows that the country generated $49.83bn in 2023, equivalent to N31.45tn at an average exchange rate of N633 to the dollar. In 2024, earnings stood at $45.51bn, translating to approximately N70.9tn at an average rate of N1,472/$1. By 2025, revenue rose to $48.17bn, or about N72tn, using an average exchange rate of N1,479/$1, according to figures compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
However, despite the strong cumulative earnings, pressure mounted on the oil-dependent economy in 2025 as crude oil export receipts declined significantly. Earnings from crude exports fell by $5.31bn year-on-year, dropping from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decrease.
The decline has been attributed to ongoing production challenges, fluctuating global oil prices, and structural inefficiencies within the petroleum industry.
As a result, Nigeria’s current account surplus narrowed to $14.04bn in 2025, down from $19.03bn in 2024, highlighting the economy’s vulnerability to changes in crude oil performance.
Experts say issues such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment continue to hinder production and weigh heavily on government revenues and external balances.
Amid these challenges, developments in domestic refining are beginning to reshape the sector. The ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is shifting Nigeria’s trade pattern from exporting crude and importing refined products to processing crude locally and exporting finished petroleum products.
This shift has started to reflect in trade outcomes. Nigeria’s goods account surplus increased to $14.51bn in 2025 from $13.17bn in 2024, driven largely by higher exports of refined petroleum products. The Dangote refinery alone contributed exports valued at $5.85bn during the year.
Improved domestic refining also reduced dependence on imports, with refined petroleum imports falling to $10bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, a drop of 28.88 per cent. This helped ease pressure on foreign exchange demand and supported relative stability in the external sector.
Nonetheless, broader economic pressures persist. Non-oil imports rose by 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods and the slow pace of diversification.
At the same time, external financial obligations increased, with net service outflows rising to $14.58bn due to higher spending on transportation, travel, and insurance. Primary income outflows also surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, driven by dividend repatriation and interest payments to foreign investors.
Remittance inflows and other secondary income sources provided some support, totaling $23.20bn in 2025, although slightly lower than the $24.88bn recorded in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government has renewed calls for increased oil production to take advantage of global market opportunities. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, urged operators to boost output through short-term strategies such as re-entry programmes and in-field well development.
Although production rose slightly to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, it has remained below the 1.5 million bpd quota set by OPEC for six consecutive months. Output in February fluctuated between 1.31 million and 1.46 million bpd, still below the government’s 2 million bpd target.
Lokpobiri also called on oil firms to accelerate Final Investment Decisions to strengthen investor confidence and sustain growth in the sector.
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