The Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS, says the Nigerian economy is showing strong signs of recovery and accelerated growth following a series of painful reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the revenue service said the economy had moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.
The NRS said the Tinubu administration inherited four major economic distortions on assumption of office: a fiscally unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system that discouraged investment, a non-performing oil sector, and a tax base far below its potential.
Despite the initial pains associated with the reforms, the report said, key indicators now point to recovery — retreating inflation, an improved balance of payments, increased oil production, higher tax collections, and a shift in the country’s productive base.
Minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026, the report said, while government policies and incentives helped cut the number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, citing UNICEF estimates.
It also credited the naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refiners with helping Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of import dependence. Oil production rose from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of the country’s OPEC quota.
The improved economic outlook has also reflected in the capital market, with the Nigerian Exchange’s market capitalisation rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. The NRS attributed the rally partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation, and growing domestic institutional investment.
Tax collections more than doubled, from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026 — a jump the report linked to the digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service, and an executive order targeting loopholes.
Economic growth rose from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves climbed from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026. The balance of payments swung from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s trade position also improved, moving from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Annual capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, with inflows hitting $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
On the compressed natural gas, CNG, programme, the report said more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted by 2026, with over $2 billion in investment mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created.
In agriculture, federal allocation rose from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget, following measures including the release of strategic grain reserves, the establishment of a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution, and mechanisation drives. Food prices fell by about 50 per cent by March 2026, the NRS said, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, though it cautioned that agriculture would need several more planting seasons for the policy support to fully translate into higher output.
On debt, the report said Nigeria’s debt stock rose from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025, but the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026 — the first sustained reduction in more than a decade. Debt servicing as a share of revenue fell from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.
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