Five years after the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) began operations, a difficult question still hangs over the continent: has it made any real difference to how Africans trade with one another?
For many small traders and manufacturers, the answer remains disappointing. The promise of a single continental market spanning 54 economies and about 1.4 billion people is impressive on paper. But in practice, cross-border business in Africa often feels much the same as it did before the agreement was signed.
That gap between ambition and reality is now the central challenge facing African trade policymakers.
The potential benefits are enormous. Institutions such as the World Bank have projected that full implementation of the AfCFTA could generate hundreds of billions of dollars in additional income and significantly reduce poverty across the continent. However, the real driver of those gains is not simply tariff reduction, but the removal of deeper, everyday obstacles that make it expensive and difficult to move goods across African borders.
In other words, the real battle is not in treaty documents—it is in logistics, infrastructure, and border efficiency.
At present, intra-African trade remains low, accounting for only about 15 percent of total continental trade. This contrasts sharply with regions like Europe and Asia, where internal trade dominates economic activity. Africa, particularly West Africa, continues to export raw materials abroad while importing finished goods that could be produced locally.
Tariffs are not the main problem. Instead, non-tariff barriers create the biggest burden. Inefficient border procedures, poor transport infrastructure, multiple checkpoints, and inconsistent regulations significantly raise the cost of doing business. Some estimates suggest that these hidden barriers can be equivalent to tariffs as high as 200 percent or more. In many cases, transport costs alone within Africa far exceed global averages, and delays at borders can wipe out any gains from duty-free trade.
This means that even when tariffs are eliminated, goods still move slowly and expensively. For traders, unpredictability—not duties—is the real obstacle. Businesses can adjust to known costs, but they struggle with delays, corruption risks, and inconsistent enforcement.
Another key issue is that trade agreements are negotiated by governments, but implemented by businesses. It is private companies that decide whether to invest, source inputs regionally, or expand into neighbouring markets. If the conditions are not practical, those decisions simply do not happen.
For the AfCFTA to succeed, the private sector cannot remain on the sidelines. Chambers of commerce and business networks across the continent must play a stronger role in translating policy into real commercial activity. They are best placed to identify bottlenecks, share market information, and connect producers with buyers across borders.
There are already early signs of progress. Pilot initiatives under the AfCFTA framework have shown that goods can move more effectively when rules are properly applied. Recent increases in intra-African trade suggest gradual improvement. However, these remain early steps. A pilot programme is not yet a fully functioning continental market.
The deeper reality is that trade liberalisation alone is not enough. Without industrial capacity, open borders simply make it easier to import goods from outside Africa rather than produce them within it. True integration must therefore go hand in hand with industrial development.
Countries that have successfully industrialised did so by building ecosystems that support production—special economic zones, export clusters, and targeted infrastructure investment. Examples from parts of North and East Africa show that when policy, infrastructure, and incentives align, manufacturing can grow and exports can become competitive.
West Africa has significant opportunities in sectors such as agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles, light manufacturing, and emerging green industries. These are areas where regional demand already exists and where local production could realistically replace imports if conditions improve.
However, none of this will matter if goods cannot move efficiently. The real constraint across the continent remains connectivity—roads, ports, rail networks, and border systems. Increasingly, digital infrastructure is just as important: electronic customs systems, single-window clearance platforms, and digital certificates of origin that allow goods to move without repeated inspections.
The private sector is willing to invest, but only where systems are predictable and rules are consistently applied. Without that certainty, long-term investment will remain limited.
Africa has what many regions lack: a vast market, abundant resources, a young workforce, and strong demographic momentum. The AfCFTA provides a framework for turning these advantages into shared prosperity. But frameworks alone do not create jobs or industries.
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