Americans went to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that could shift the balance of power in Congress and hand President Donald Trump a significant political setback, as the Republican Party fights to keep control amid public frustration over the economy and the war with Iran.
The vote comes at a difficult moment for Republicans. Rising living costs, high fuel prices, inflation and Trump’s foreign policy decisions have emerged as the main issues shaping voters’ choices.
With two years of his term remaining, Trump stepped up his campaign efforts, holding rallies across the country and urging supporters to treat the elections as a referendum on his leadership. At a rally last month, he asked voters to act as though he were on the ballot.
“In this election, I’m asking you to pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” he said.
His falling approval ratings, however, have raised concerns within the party about how much he can help its candidates. Pre-election polling put his approval rating at about 38 per cent.
The economy remains the administration’s biggest challenge. Trump’s tariff policies and the continuing conflict with Iran have deepened worries about household expenses. Diesel prices reportedly climbed from $3.75 per gallon before the conflict began in February to a record $6.52 in September, while inflation rose from three per cent when Trump took office to 3.7 per cent.
The pressure has forced Republicans to defend traditionally safe territory, including Kansas and Iowa, where Democrats are mounting stronger challenges.
Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, said increased Republican spending on political advertising in friendly states pointed to growing concern within the party about its prospects. Stephen Hawkins, global director of research at More in Common, also noted that several states once seen as Republican strongholds had become competitive.
Analysts caution, though, that discontent with Trump does not automatically translate into support for Democrats. Only 29 per cent of voters viewed the Democratic Party favourably in pre-election polling. Some Republican supporters have criticised the president’s handling of foreign affairs and the cost of living but say they will not leave the party over ideological differences.
Democrats are seeking to capitalise on the mood, particularly in the House of Representatives. Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh named the cost of living and the Iran conflict as the decisive factors, warning that Republican candidates who failed to challenge Trump’s decisions could face voter anger.
A Democratic House majority would give the party more influence over Trump’s legislative agenda and the power to open investigations into his administration. It could also consider impeachment proceedings against cabinet members, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly among those who could face scrutiny over the handling of the Iran conflict.
The Senate is a tougher prospect for Democrats. With 35 seats up for election, they need a net gain of four seats to take control, a figure that rises to five if they lose their seat in Michigan. Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina are expected to decide the outcome.
The results will also shape political calculations ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Democrats will be testing their appeal among rural voters and their ability to compete in Republican-leaning states, while watching emerging figures such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas.
Trump’s response to possible Republican losses is also drawing attention, given his past criticism of the integrity and security of American elections.
The outcome will offer a clear measure of public confidence in Trump’s leadership and determine how much influence Democrats can wield over the remaining two years of his presidency.
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